Sunday, January 13, 2008

Polls vs. Bookies

It is no secret that election polls are notoriously unreliable. This fact has led many people to conclude that they are more politically motivated than actual scientific surveys.

I wish I had acted on this fact earlier for the recent primaries in Iowa and New Hampshire, but I believe it is not too late to compare the polls to where money talks.

Polls vs. Bookies, what is more reliable?
My bet is on the bookies.

The next primary is in Michigan and I find a stark difference in the clarity between boodies and pollesters.

I spent a lot of time trying to convert bookie odds to percentages of result, but they deal in odds and perhaps after a few trials there may be some correlation.

Numbers like 8/13 odds are kind of hard to digest so I reduce such odds to the payout of a winning bet on over a dollar.

Smaller the payback the better chance of win.

odds Pay Poll

Clinton 1/50 $.02 45%

Obama 14/1 $14 14%

Edwards 50/1 $50 13%

McCain 8/13 $.62 25%

Romney 5/4 $1.25 26%

Huckabee 10/1 $10 16%